My apologies for the delay in updates - I am back now after grading + vacation!

Daily

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Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) August 31, Sept 14, Sept 28: Return to campus/school, +2 weeks, +4 weeks

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

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La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

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Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

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Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
December 25 2020 9000 41459 284 74 463 631
December 26 2020 9000 41530 285 74 400 546
December 27 2020 9064 41601 289 74 415 578
December 28 2020 9089 41636 290 75 390 575
December 29 2020 9118 41722 291 75 367 581
December 30 2020 9182 41846 292 75 389 582
December 31 2020 9259 42009 291 76 433 610
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 5 2.1 4.6% 20 0.17% 29 0.25%
10-19 3 2.7 8.8% 38 0.28% 71 0.52%
20-29 18 8.6 19.4% 84 0.4% 121 0.58%
30-39 19 6.9 16.6% 72 0.53% 104 0.76%
40-49 13 4.6 11.5% 50 0.48% 69 0.66%
50-59 8 6.7 14.1% 61 0.49% 79 0.63%
60-69 8 4.7 10.6% 46 0.4% 56 0.49%
70+ 3 4.3 14.3% 62 0.59% 81 0.77%
All ages 77 40.6 100% 433 0.41% 610 0.58%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
December 25 2020 5728 24776 168 65 252 355
December 26 2020 5733 24821 168 65 229 325
December 27 2020 5785 24852 169 65 247 361
December 28 2020 5797 24881 171 65 225 334
December 29 2020 5814 24927 173 65 210 338
December 30 2020 5839 24993 173 65 214 335
December 31 2020 5902 25058 173 65 256 364
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 3 1.4 5.5% 14 0.18% 19 0.24%
10-19 10 2.9 12.5% 32 0.38% 49 0.58%
20-29 3 3.6 12.5% 32 0.45% 43 0.6%
30-39 8 3.9 15.2% 39 0.46% 56 0.67%
40-49 15 3.7 15.2% 39 0.5% 53 0.68%
50-59 14 3.6 12.9% 33 0.34% 47 0.48%
60-69 6 3.0 13.7% 35 0.42% 55 0.65%
70+ 4 3.0 12.5% 32 0.45% 42 0.59%
All ages 63 25.0 100% 256 0.4% 364 0.56%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
December 25 2020 4366 16595 183 55 316 402
December 26 2020 4366 16630 183 55 281 365
December 27 2020 4393 16640 188 55 261 372
December 28 2020 4398 16656 188 55 219 355
December 29 2020 4404 16675 190 56 195 354
December 30 2020 4435 16713 190 57 205 350
December 31 2020 4472 16758 190 57 214 340
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 3 0.7 3.3% 7 0.13% 10 0.18%
10-19 11 3.7 16.8% 36 0.66% 47 0.87%
20-29 5 2.3 12.1% 26 0.57% 40 0.88%
30-39 2 3.1 15.9% 34 0.63% 50 0.92%
40-49 3 2.9 16.8% 36 0.72% 55 1.11%
50-59 6 2.6 14% 30 0.44% 54 0.8%
60-69 6 1.7 10.3% 22 0.35% 40 0.63%
70+ 1 1.6 10.7% 23 0.36% 44 0.69%
All ages 37 18.6 100% 214 0.47% 340 0.75%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
December 25 2020 9776 44687 221 54 516 721
December 26 2020 9775 44746 221 54 439 668
December 27 2020 9831 44819 222 55 408 676
December 28 2020 9867 44861 223 55 385 682
December 29 2020 9909 44945 227 56 376 650
December 30 2020 9994 45157 232 57 415 658
December 31 2020 10125 45337 232 57 510 702
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 6 2.6 5.1% 28 0.24% 38 0.32%
10-19 20 6.6 10.4% 57 0.34% 85 0.51%
20-29 29 13.3 24.6% 135 0.63% 185 0.87%
30-39 29 9.4 16.2% 89 0.65% 108 0.79%
40-49 20 8.0 13.7% 75 0.55% 88 0.65%
50-59 9 4.9 8.9% 49 0.35% 84 0.59%
60-69 10 6.0 11.5% 63 0.44% 84 0.59%
70+ 8 5.0 9.7% 53 0.41% 69 0.53%
All ages 131 55.7 100% 549 0.46% 741 0.63%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
December 25 2020 32374 292263 987 176 1692 2342
December 26 2020 32375 292811 988 176 1522 2125
December 27 2020 32555 293128 992 176 1447 2081
December 28 2020 32721 293734 997 176 1402 2068
December 29 2020 32790 293628 1011 179 1261 2108
December 30 2020 32956 293528 1001 182 1316 2103
December 31 2020 33313 294043 1009 182 1535 2205
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 22 7.9 5% 76 0.13% 120 0.2%
10-19 25 14.9 9.6% 148 0.21% 234 0.33%
20-29 97 36.4 23.1% 354 0.34% 482 0.46%
30-39 84 31.4 18.6% 286 0.37% 381 0.5%
40-49 52 22.7 15.3% 235 0.36% 332 0.51%
50-59 40 23.3 14% 215 0.33% 302 0.46%
60-69 29 12.9 8.6% 132 0.24% 196 0.36%
70+ 8 7.7 5.8% 89 0.18% 158 0.32%
All ages 357 157.1 100% 1535 0.28% 2205 0.4%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
December 25 2020 467899 2324819 20703 4679 25503 37942
December 26 2020 468531 2330080 20734 4683 23733 34515
December 27 2020 470818 2332695 20829 4692 22377 34045
December 28 2020 472153 2336531 20911 4711 20477 33258
December 29 2020 474537 2340164 21081 4783 19186 32141
December 30 2020 477292 2344771 21207 4818 20115 32494
December 31 2020 481102 2350669 21350 4859 22490 32661
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 188 102.7 4.9% 1102 0.17% 1660 0.26%
10-19 421 234.1 11.3% 2538 0.34% 3766 0.5%
20-29 638 356.6 16.4% 3682 0.49% 5298 0.7%
30-39 671 332.4 15.5% 3497 0.46% 4999 0.66%
40-49 555 295.3 13.9% 3133 0.45% 4568 0.65%
50-59 571 318.6 15.4% 3453 0.42% 4945 0.61%
60-69 395 235.4 11.3% 2541 0.34% 3745 0.49%
70+ 371 226.1 11.3% 2544 0.4% 3680 0.57%
All ages 3810 2101.3 100% 22490 0.39% 32661 0.56%

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Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
58.3 52.2 57.8 40.6 43.9 29.2%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
56.3 25 28.7 34.7%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
75.1 18.6 29.9 39.6%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
62.7 51.4 86.9 50.1 60.6 32.9%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
40.3 32.9 46.4 157.1 166.6 28.7%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
56.1 49.8 70 2101.3 2914.9 30.9%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

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Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 2.3 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.57 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-01-22 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 4236"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red